Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
825
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Posted - 2012.04.05 02:23:00 -
[1] - Quote
corestwo wrote:I should note to everyone that this means that Scrapyard Bob's already hilariously low price estimates are now even hilariously lower. Or to put it another way, minerals are going to rise even more than they were already going to.
(chuckle)
This will have an effect, but I don't know how much. Anyone have recent (within the past year) information on how much mineral supply came from re-proc of meta-zero items? And knows for sure how much of that number came from shipping of minerals around using mineral compression (which will not be impacted)?
Current prices (approx):
Veld 159 Scor 141 Pyro 198 Plag 158 Omb 96 Kern 160 Jasp 231 Hemo 265 Hedb 258
Gneiss 159 DarkO 248 Spod 123 Croc 334 Bist 354 Ark 438
Trit 5.31 Pye 6.34 Mex 53.98 Iso 85.85 Nocx 767 Zyd 1632 Mega 3386 Morph 9063
If we ignore Omber (which lives in its own little world) and only look at the remaining hi-sec ores, the ratio between the 2nd worst ore and the best ore has traditionally ranged between 1.2 and 1.5 depending on how volatile things are. When things are turbulent, you'll see the best ore at 50% more ISK/m3 then the 2nd worst. When things quiet down, that narrows back towards 1.2-1.3.
Right now, that ratio stands at 198/141 or about 1.40.
If we assume:
Veld 188 Scor 167 Pyro 228 Plag 178 Omb 112 Kern 182 Jasp 269 Hemo 309 Hedb 299
Gneiss 177 DarkO 282 Spod 128 Croc 373 Bist 378 Ark 458
Trit 6.25 Pye 7.5 Mex 60 Iso 100 Nocx 900 Zyd 1800 Mega 3500 Morph 9500
Then the ratio ends up at 228/167 or 1.36. Within reason.
If we let Nocx/Zyd/Mega float up a bit more:
Veld 188 Scor 167 Pyro 261 Plag 178 Omb 112 Kern 182 Jasp 347 Hemo 405 Hedb 383
Gneiss 228 DarkO 375 Spod 146 Croc 498 Bist 469 Ark 541
Trit 6.25 Pye 7.5 Mex 60 Iso 100 Nocx 1200 Zyd 2400 Mega 4000 Morph 9500
Which puts that ratio at 261/167 or 1.56. That's on the high-side. The lower-end minerals would have to also rise up to narrow the gap, or the high ends would have to tumble back down a bit.
Given a target of about 500 ISK/m3 for the ABCs, and keeping that ratio at 1.4 or so.
Veld 195 Scor 188 Pyro 268 Plag 193 Omb 164 Kern 227 Jasp 349 Hemo 412 Hedb 407
Gneiss 237 DarkO 376 Spod 146 Croc 498 Bist 469 Ark 541
Trit 6.5 Pye 9.5 Mex 62.5 Iso 150 Nocx 1200 Zyd 2400 Mega 4000 Morph 9500
Again, that's by looking at the supply-side numbers from mining and assumes that if the ratio gets too large that they will move around to chase the better ores. I'm not sure that Nocx can stay at 1200, not unless every last scrap of Pyrox in hi-sec gets mined out every day. |